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Legislation Publications Pension models About project Statistics
Legislation Publications Pension models About project Statistics

1. Introduction

2. Actuary expertise
2.1. Contents of the actuary expertise
2.2. Actuary control cycle
2.3. Actuary expertise tools

3. Basics of the pension legislation of the Republic of Moldova
3.1. General principles
3.2. Social insurance contributions and taxable basis
3.3. Pension types and conditions of their assignment
3.3.1. Old age pensions
3.3.2. Disability pensions
3.3.3. Survivors pensions
3.3.4. Pensions to some categories of citizens
3.3.5. Social pensions/benefits
3.3.6. Pensions paid from the state budget
3.4. Minimal pension and guaranteed minimum
3.5. Pension formulas
3.6. Pension indexation

4. Demographic situation in the Republic of Moldova
4.1. Dynamics of population number and sex/age structure
4.2. Birth rate
4.3. Mortality and life expectancy
4.4. Marriage and divorce rates
4.5. Population natality and reproduction
4.6. Demographic forecast

5. Current macroeconomic situation
5.1. Tendencies of population economic activity
5.2. Development of basic forecast

6. Background information on pension insurance
6.1. Number of pensioners
6.1.1. Analysis of the number of pensioners
6.1.2. Distribution of the number of pensioners by pension types
6.1.3. Sex/age number of pensioners
6.2. Pensioner’ standard of living
6.2.1. Average size of pensions
6.2.2. Compensation of lost wage
6.2.3. Gender differences in pension sizes

7. Modeling outputs

8. Outputs and perspectives of the development of pension system of the Republic of Moldova

9. Annex: Analysis of the risks of the Non-Financial Defined Contribution (NDC) and Financial Defined Contribution (FDC) pension systems
9.1. Principles of the design of NDC pension system
9.2. Principles of the design of FDC pension system
9.3. Experience of applying FDC schemes
9.4. Comparison of NDC and Funded schemes




Pension system of the Republic of Moldova: actuary expertise

4.2. Birth rate

The rate and tendencies of the birth rate defines the character of population reproduction, dynamics of population number.

Table 4.3
Dynamics of the general birth rate indicators in the Republic of Moldova in 1989-20051


Years

Absolute number of born

General natality coefficient
(number of born per 1000 persons)

1980

82221

18.9

1990

77085

17.7

1991

74552

17.1

1992

70837

16.3

1993

66179

15.2

1994

62085

14.3

1995

56412

13.0

1996

51866

12.0

1997

45584

12.5

1998

41332

11.3

1999

38501

10.6

2000

36939

10.2

2001

36448

10.0

2002

35705

9.9

2003

36471

10.1

2004

38272

10.6

2005

37695

10.5

The general natality indicators were decreasing in Moldova in the studied period from 1990 to 2002. According to the data from the Table 4.3, it seems that the dynamics of the general birth rate coefficient shows its decrease in 1997. However, probably it has not happened. The point is that since 1997 the data do not include the information on Transnistria and therefore they are not quite commensurable with the indices for previous years. Given some discrepancies in the national structure and the specifics of the reproductive behavior of the population from Transnistria and Moldova it could be supposed that Transnistria was characterized by low natality rates, while Moldova – by higher indices than in average for the Republic of Moldova. If this is so, there was no increase of the general natality coefficient in 1997.

In 2003 and 2004 there was an increase of the absolute number of born, as well as amounted to 1000 persons. This increase was conditioned mainly by favorable changes in the sex/age structure of population (by 57,9%) than by the growth of the birth rate (by 42,1%).

In 2005 the general natality indicators went down slightly. It was entirely conditioned by the decrease of age coefficients; the youth rate continued to grow up in the age structure of population.

Table 4.4
Dynamics of general natality coefficients for urban and rural population of the Republic of Moldova in 1990-2005.


Years

Urban population

Rural population

1990

16.7

18.5

1995

10.8

14.9

1996

9.8

13.8

1997

10.1

14.2

1998

9.3

12.8

1999

8.7

11.9

2000

8.4

11.4

2001

8.4

11.2

2002

8.5

10.8

2003

8.6

11.2

2004

9.4

11.5

2005

9.1

11.4

The general natality coefficients in rural habitats are higher than in urban habitats. However, in the recent years there is a tendency to their equalizing. At the same time we could not judge by general coefficients about actual differences in the birth rate, since they depend on the specifics of sex/age population structure.

The birth rate is characterized better by age coefficients.

Table 4.5
Dynamics of age natality coefficients in the Republic of Moldova in 1991-2005.


years

Number of births per 1000 women of the corresponding age

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

Total population

1991

61.7

202.6

106.3

53.0

21.2

5.4

0.2

1992

62.2

197.8

105.8

50.7

19.7

4.4

0.2

1996

53.2

127.7

85.2

37.7

13.7

2.9

0.2

1997

47.7

119.9

83.7

36.6

13.1

2.8

0.2

1998

43.8

116.0

82.5

38.5

14.0

3.4

0.5

1999

39.0

106.7

75.7

36.4

13.0

2.7

0.3

2000

36.3

103.7

67.8

34.7

12.2

2.6

0.1

2001

33.6

98.1

67.4

36.0

12.0

2.6

0.2

2002

30.2

91.5

66.2

38.5

13.0

2.6

0.1

2003

29.2

89.7

67.6

40.7

13.8

2.6

0.1

2004

29.2

91.2

71.6

41.3

15.1

2.8

0.1

2005

29.0

87.2

70.8

38.2

15.9

2.5

0.2

Urban population

1991

46.2

156.4

91.3

43.3

16.7

4.1

0.2

1992

47.7

143.4

86.0

40.0

15.4

3.5

0.1

1996

36.7

92.5

64.2

30.9

10.9

1.9

0.1

2001

21.5

84.0

57.6

29.2

9.7

2.0

?0.1

2002

19.8

79.8

60.9

33.4

11.2

2.1

0.1

2003

18.9

76.8

62.6

34.4

12.2

2.2

0.1

2004

18.7

82.2

72.3

37.3

14.0

2.3

0.1

2005

18.7

75.2

71.8

36.2

14.4

2.2

0.3

Rural population

1991

78.6

267.8

123.3

63.8

26.1

6.9

0.3

1992

76.6

273.8

128.2

62.5

24.4

5.4

0.2

1996

67.1

165.5

111.0

44.9

16.7

3.9

0.3

2001

41.0

107.2

75.4

42.7

14.1

3.2

?0.2

2002

36.7

98.9

70.3

43.8

14.6

2.9

0.1

2003

35.6

97.8

71.3

47.1

15.1

3.1

0.1

2004

35.8

96.8

71.0

45.2

16.1

3.3

0.2

2005

35.4

94.6

70.1

40.0

17.3

2.7

0.1

The decrease of the birth rate of women from different age groups did not occur similarly. It affected mainly the young age groups. So in 2005 the natality coefficient for women up to 20 was by 39,2% less than in 1997, women aged 20-24 – by 27,3%, and aged 25-29 – by 15,4%.

As for the age groups “30-34” and “35-39” the natality coefficients were higher in 2005 than in 1997.
Thus, along with the natality decrease the change of its age model occurred, the shift of higher share of births to women of elder ages. If in 1997 the natality coefficient for women aged 25-29 constituted 69,8% of the birth rate in the age group “20-24” and for women aged 30-34 – 30,5%, in 2005 these indicators constituted 81,2% and, correspondingly, 43,8%.

Picture 4.3. Age natality coefficients in the Republic of Moldova in 1997 and 2005.

Probably, the postponement of births, their shift to elder ages shall have a negative impact on the dynamics of the birth rate. Firstly, with age the health state is worsening, including the reproductive condition, that prevents the realization of reproductive intentions. Secondly, with age the person have an idea of a certain life standard, standard of living and if a child is born at quite young age, the way of life is formed considering this child. The postponement of the birth of the first child could lead to the fact that the child shall be perceived as threat to the maintenance of the usual way of life. Moreover, this is related to 2-3 children without whom the population reproduction and overcoming of negative demographic dynamics are impossible.
The age natality models differ slightly for urban and rural women.


Picture 4.4. Age natality coefficients of urban and rural population of the Republic of Moldova in 2005.

If in the rural habitats the maximum birth rates are specific for the age 20-24, in urban habitats the natality indicators for this and next age groups differ to a lesser degree (in the cities the natality coefficient of the women aged 25-29 constitutes 95,5% of the indicator for women aged 20-24; in rural habitats – 74,1%).

Table 4.6
Contribution of certain age groups to the summary birth rate in the Republic of Moldova in 1991-2005.


years

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

1991

13.7

45.0

23.6

11.8

4.7

1.2

0.0

1992

14.1

44.9

24.0

11.5

4.5

1.0

0.0

1996

16.6

39.8

26.6

11.8

4.3

0.9

0.1

1997

15.7

39.4

27.5

12.0

4.3

0.9

0.1

1998

14.7

38.8

27.6

12.9

4.7

1.1

0.2

1999

14.2

39.0

27.6

13.3

4.7

1.0

0.1

2000

14.1

40.3

26.3

13.5

4.7

1.0

0.0

2001

13.4

39.3

27.0

14.4

4.8

1.0

0.1

2002

12.5

37.8

27.3

15.9

5.4

1.1

0.0

2003

12.0

36.8

27.7

16.7

5.7

1.1

0.0

2004

11.6

36.3

28.5

16.4

6.0

1.1

0.0

2005

11.9

35.8

29.0

15.7

6.5

1.0

0.1

The change of the natality model leads to the change of the contribution of births of different age groups to the summary natality coefficient. So the contribution of births of the women younger than 25 to the summary natality coefficient went down in 2005 compared to 1997 by 7,4% (from 55,1% to 47,7%), while of women aged 25-34 – on the contrary, it increased from 39,5% to 44,7%.

Table 4.7
Dynamics of the summary natality coefficient in the Republic of Moldova in 1990-2005.

Years

Summary natality coefficient

1990

2.39

1991

2.28

1992

2.22

1993

2.06

1994

1.93

1995

1.74

1996

1.59

1997

1.65

1998

1.67

1999

1.39

2000

1.29

2001

1.25

2002

1.21

2003

1.22

2004

1.26

2005

1.22

In the reported period in Moldova a significant reduction of the summary natality coefficient occurred. Given the above-mentioned about the probable differences in the birth rate of the population from Transnistria and Moldova, we could speak about a double decrease of the summary natality coefficient compared to 1990. As result the birth rate decreased more than the level required for population reproduction. Now the summary natality coefficient is lower than this level by 1,76 times. Its decrease was particularly impetuous in 1993-1996. Probably in 1997 there was no actual increase of the natality and we simply deal with incommensurable data related to different country regions (mentioned above). After 2001 the decrease of the natality was almost ceased, the change of its level was insignificant compared to previous period. In 2005 the summary natality coefficient in Moldova was one of the lowest in the world.

Such low birth rate inevitably leads to a great decrease of population. Now in the country the decrease is not so great due to favorable population age structure. It is enough to mention that for the insurance of a zero natality, i.e. balance of births and deaths, in 2005 the summary natality coefficient should constitute only 1,45 (that corresponds to the average birth rate in Europe). However, the population age structure shall worsen inevitably, corresponding to the existing population reproduction rate and by maintaining the current birth rate this shall lead to a considerable natural decrease of population.

Such considerable decrease of the birth rate was conditioned mainly by the difficulties of the adaptation of a great part of families to changing life conditions (more precisely it would be possible to tell according to the findings of the deep analysis of reproductive behavior). Occurred both the postponement and refusal of the birth of children (especially the second and the subsequent). Another important factor of birth rate decrease in this period was the accelerated transformation of value orientations, the further weakening of the need to have children, motivation of childbirth, increase of claims related to the preferable life standards. The result of the latest was the fact that birth of children is more often sacrificed to the maintenance and achievement of a higher living standard, its own realization in various life spheres, besides parenting. This factor shall have a long-term character than the issue of adaptation to life conditions.

Table 4.8
Distribution of born by birth number in the Republic of Moldova in 1990-2005 (in %)


years

First birth

Second birth

Third birth

Fourth birth

Fifth and further births

1990

42.6

33.8

15.1

5.1

3.5

1991

46.4

32.1

13.5

4.8

3.1

1992

45.8

32.3

14.0

4.8

3.0

1993

48.2

31.2

13.0

4.6

2.9

1994

48.8

31.4

12.5

4.4

2.9

1995

49.1

32.0

11.9

4.2

2.9

1996

49.8

31.9

11.5

4.1

2.7

1997

49.1

32.6

11.6

4.0

2.8

1998

49.8

32.1

11.5

4.0

2.7

1999

51.2

31.5

10.9

3.8

2.7

2000

53.8

30.1

9.9

3.6

2.5

2001

53.1

31.1

9.9

5.9

2002

52.0

32.5

9.6

5.8

2003

52.0

32.4

10.2

5.3

2004

53.0

32.3

9.8

4.9

2005

52.9

32.3

9.8

3.0

2.0

The process of natality decrease is reflected in the fact that the share of first births is growing up, while the share of third and further births is decreasing. The share of second births is changing slightly.

A specific feature of the birth rate is the summary natality coefficient by first births.

Table 4.9
Dynamics of the summary natality coefficient by first births in the Republic of Moldova in 1990-2005.


Years

Summary natality coefficient

1990

1.02

1991

1.06

1992

1.02

1993

0.99

1994

0.94

1995

0.85

1996

0.79

1997

0.81

1998

0.83

1999

0.71

2000

0.69

2001

0.66

2002

0.63

2003

0.63

2004

0.67

2005

0.65

At the beginning of ‘90th the summary natality coefficient by first births exceeded 1,0. It is obviously that this could happen only in conventional generations, while in the actual groups it shall not exceed 0,97 (the first child could be only one and a part of women could not have it due to sterility). Thus, until 1994 in Moldova the cases of refusing or postponing the birth of the first child were not spread. Now the situation has changed. The summary natality coefficient by first births, equal to 0,65, allows to suppose the postponement (including due to marriage postponement) or even refusal from the birth of the first child by about 20% of women.

The current data on birth rate allows to calculate the indices only for conventional generation, i.e. for the totality of persons of different ages but living in the same period of time, contemporaries. The conventionality lies in the fact that actually this generation does not exist, though in the calculation of indices it is supposed conventionally that during the life of the contemporaries the intensity of the birth rate at each age is similar to that occurring in the studied calendar period. These indices are usually used for current description of the birth rate.

However, such indicators along with doubtless advantages consisting in the fact that they allow to follow up regularly the dynamics of the birth rate, have a significant shortcoming. They depend on the so-called births timing. Under the influence of some short-term events the birth of children could be postponed (probably this happened in many families in ‘90th). The reverse situation is also possible. The birth of the child could happen earlier than the parents planned under favorable conditions for new arrival in the family (probably this happened in ‘80th due to the realization of a range of measures by the state for supporting the families with children; at that time still in the Soviet Union). All this shall be reflected on the current natality indicators, calculated for conventional (hypothetical) generations, but it shall not have a significant impact on the final number of births in actual generations and, as result, on the reproduction of these generations.

The real generation is the totality of persons born in the same period. The main source of data on natality for real generations is the population census. The use of data on the average number of born children by women from different generations, different ages allows to follow up more efficiently the changes in the birth rate, define more accurately its determinants.

However, the use of natality indicators in real generations has its shortcomings. The final number of births in the real generation could be determined only when all women complete the child-bearing process (until then we could speak only about the number of born children at some age). In this case we could speak only about the past natality (although not long ago).

Table 4.10
Average number of children born by women from different generations in the Republic of Moldova
(per one woman; according to the data of 2004 population census)2

Birth date

Age at the moment of population census (years)

Average number of born children

1985-1989

15-19

0.041

1980-1984

20-24

0.444

1975-1979

25-29

1.142

1970-1974

30-34

1.657

1965-1969

35-39

1.995

1960-1964

40-44

2.168

1955-1959

45-49

2.260

1950-1954

50-54

2.295

1945-1949

55-59

2.284

1940-1944

60-64

2.464

1935-1939

65-69

2.599

1934 and earlier

70 and over

2.874

The data of the 2004 population census about the number of born children showed the decrease of the birth rate in the real generations. The breach of the smooth decrease of the average number of births in the transition to younger generations is specific only for women born in 1950-1954. Their natality indicator is rather higher than for previous group. It could be supposed that this is the result of the realization in ‘80th of a range of measures by the state for supporting the families with children.

It seems that the age of maximum birth rate (20-24 years) passed over before the realization of these actions. However, the growth of the natality in the ‘80th affected mainly the second and third births, specific for the women over 25. Just the second and third births of the women, born in 1950-1954, occurred mainly at the beginning of ‘80th.

Table 4.11
Average number of children born by women from different generations in urban and rural habitats of the Republic of Moldova
(per one woman; according to the data of 2004 population census)

Birth date

Age at the moment of population census (years)

Average number of born children

Urban

Rural

Difference between the rural and urban habitats

1985-1989

15-19

0.018

0.061

0.043

1980-1984

20-24

0.264

0.603

0.339

1975-1979

25-29

0.841

1.359

0.518

1970-1974

30-34

1.293

1.916

0.623

1965-1969

35-39

1.618

2.262

0.644

1960-1964

40-44

1.782

2.455

0.673

1955-1959

45-49

1.857

2.559

0.702

1950-1954

50-54

1.859

2.613

0.754

1945-1949

55-59

1.801

2.628

0.827

1940-1944

60-64

1.850

2.774

0.924

1935-1939

65-69

1.882

2.964

1.082

1934 and earlier

70 and over

2.140

3.190

1.050

The increase of the birth rate in real generations was specific only for urban women. It was rather higher than for all women in the country and affected not only one, but two generations: 1950-1954 and 1955-1959 (birth years). For the rural women having a higher birth rate was not specific the increase of the average number of born children in real generations.

The differences in the natality indicators between rural and urban women in the transition to younger generations are reduced steadily.

Table 4.12
Dynamics of the share of born out of the registered marriage in the Republic of Moldova in 1990-2005.

Years

All population

Urban population

Rural population

1990

11.0

12.1

10.1

1995

13.3

15.9

11.6

1996

14.6

17.2

12.9

1997

17.3

19.2

16.2

1998

17.5

18.7

16.8

1999

18.8

18.6

18.9

2000

20.4

22.0

19.7

2001

22.5

21.8

22.8

2002

22.9

22.1

23.4

2003

23.8

22.2

24.5

2004

24.5

22.1

25.9

During the whole studied period the share of born out of the registered marriage was increasing steadily. Now these births constitute about a quarter of their total number. The rural habitats are characterized by a considerable growth of this indicator. As result since 2001 the share of born out of the registered marriage is higher for rural women than for urban. The discrepancy grows permanently: in 2001 it constituted 1,0%, in 2002 – 1,3%, in 2003 – 2,3%, in 2004 – 3,8%.


1. Until 1996 the data is related to the whole country, including Transnistria, from 1997 – except Transnistria.


2. The data presented in this and next tables differs from the official data, since the average number of born children is presented as counted on women that indicated the number of born children, not on all women as in the official census results.

Назад К оглавлению Вперед

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