
1. ВВЕДЕНИЕ 2.АКТУАРНАЯ ЭКСПЕРТИЗА 3. ОСНОВЫ ПЕНСИОННОГО ЗАКОНОДАТЕЛЬСТВА РЕСПУБЛИКИ МОЛДОВА 4. ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКАЯ СИТУАЦИЯ В РЕСПУБЛИКЕ МОЛДОВА 5. СОВРЕМЕННАЯ МАКРОЭКОНОМИЧЕСКАЯ СИТУАЦИЯ 6. ОБЩИЕ СВЕДЕНИЯ О ПЕНСИОННОМ ОБЕСПЕЧЕНИИ 7. РЕЗУЛЬТАТЫ МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЯ 8. Итоги и перспективы развития пенсионной системы Республики Молдова 9. Приложение: анализ рисков условнонакопительной и накопительной пенсионных систем

Пенсионная система Республики Молдова: актуарная экспертиза
7. Modeling outputsModeling program: In the framework of this report it was carried out a wide modeling under various forecasts, defining the parameters of the future pension system. As a basic scenario the following variant of the forecast was used (the main characteristics of the scenario are presented below):
In the process of developing additional modeling scenarios:
Modeling The modeling was carried out with the purpose of determining the financial stability and level of pension insurance provided by the system according to the current pension legislation under the unchanged retirement age. The dynamics of the change of the nominal pension size is a less informative index both from the point of view of the evaluation of the perspectives of pension system development and the standard of living, provided to the pensioners. In this relation the most important indices are the coefficient of lost wage replacement, proposed by the pension system to its participants, as well as the level of pension system equilibrium. It is to be mentioned that there are different methods of replacement rate evaluation. For the pension system on the whole it is usually used the replacement rate, determined as correlation between the average pension size and average size of calculated wage. The replacement rate, calculated on the basis of the basic scenario, points to the fact that, unfortunately, the current pension system could propose to its participants on the retirement quite modest insurance level. The Picture 7.1 presents the dynamics of the correlation between the average monthly wage and average pension in a long perspective. From the graph it is clear seen that since 1995 the replacement rate went down constantly. In the last decade it went down from 44,9% to 28,7% in 2005. The modeling shows that under the maintenance of the current conditions of pension system functioning, the replacement rate shall reduce further up to 2040 year and then shall stabilize at the level of about 1112%. While the differentiation between the average size of calculated wage and average size of calculated pension shall grow significantly. So if in 2005 their sizes differed by 3,2 times, at the end of the forecast period this difference shall constitute 8,5.
Picture 7.1. Dynamics and correlation between the calculated average wage and average pension. Picture 7.2. Replacement rate for different groups of pensioners. The replacement rate, calculated for different categories of pension beneficiaries, are presented on the Picture 7.2. Herein it is to be mentioned the unity of tendencies in the change of this index for all studied categories of beneficiaries for a longterm perspective. In the period from 2005 to 2050 the replacement rate is reducing more than twice. Certain difference in the replacement rate of various groups of pensioners is explained first of all by the differences in the actual size of length of service, considered in the pension formula. Therefore, for hired workers the average actual size of the length of service constitutes 38 years, while for hired agricultural workers – 28 years. Thus, as result, in the determination of pension size according to the new formula the insured income is increased by the coefficient 0,48 for hired nonagricultural workers, by 0,34 – for hired agricultural workers and by 0,35 – for the most numerous group of pensionersbeneficiaries of disability pensions (II disability gravity). Picture 7.3. Comparison of replacement rates. Another replacement rate, characterizing the efficiency of the pension system functioning, is the possible replacement rate (Picture 7.3), showing which maximum value of this index the pension system could ensure under the given operation conditions and in the conditions of ensuring its equilibrium. The calculations show that during the whole forecast period the possible replacement rate according to basic scenario is higher than the actual that indicates a not bad system equilibrium on the whole.
Picture 7.4. Pension system balance. On the Picture 7.4 it is clear seen that by maintaining in the Republic of Moldova of current conditions of pension system functioning, the main part of the forecast period it shall be characterized by proficit. Until 2025 the proficit of the pension system shall increase slightly that is explained by the existing rules of pension indexation. Lately the proficit of pension system shall decrease that is explained by the worsening of demographic conditions and increase of pension burden coefficient. The stable proficit of the pension system points to the real possibilities of the increase of the replacement rate. Analysis of pension formula Herein we shall examine the influence of pension formula, used in pension calculation, on the size of pension. For this purpose we shall calculate different variants of the replacement rate. The average replacement rate, characterizing the correlation between the average pension size and average wage for each forecast year. The replacement rate – at the achievement of the retirement age, calculated in relation to the last salary, got before retired. And also the replacement rate at the achievement of the retirement age with scenario assumptions that since 2010 all pensions of new pensioners are calculated only on the basis of the new formula. The results of the calculations are presented on the Picture 7.5. Picture 7.5. Comparison of replacement rates for oldage nonagricultural pensioners. On the picture 7.5 it is clear seen that under any method of calculation of the replacement rate in a longterm perspective, it has the tendency to decrease. However, if calculate the pensions only based on the new formula, quite fast and sharp reduction of the replacement rate, calculated at the achievement of the retirement age, occurs that indicates that the new pension formula (under other equal conditions) gives lower pension size. By examining the proposed graph it could be mentioned the following. The replacement rate, calculated at the achievement of the retirement age, is higher, as a rule, than the average replacement rate. Its small reduction (compared to the average replacement rate) in 2025 is explained by the fact that in this period the pension system of the Republic of Moldova, according to the current legislation, shall turn to the calculation of pensions by the new formula. Further the replacement rate grows up by several percents that is explained by the change of the macroeconomic situation in the second half of the forecast period and first of all by the reduction of the rates of wage and inflation growth that leads to the depreciation of the average monthly insured income. As it seems the main reason, why the pensions calculated by the new formula are less than pensions calculated by old formula, is that the recent formula does not include the index of the average monthly insured income, which is not indexed now, and therefore, is depreciating quickly against the background of high rates of wage and inflation growth. At the same time if index it by the inflation, the situation is stabilized gradually, as it could be seen on the Picture 7.6, presenting the data on the correlation of the parts of pension, calculated by the new and old formulas. This shall allow avoiding the decrease of the replacement rate, which shall happen inevitably in the transition to the calculation of pensions only by the new formula that is showed on the Picture 7.5. Picture 7.6 As it was abovementioned the lower size of pensions, calculated according to the new formula, is related to the lack of indexation of the average monthly insured income. Under quite high rates of salary increase that is specific for the countries with transition economies, a sharp depreciation of the insured income compared to the wage occurs that could be clear seen on the Picture 7.7. Picture 7.7. Correlation between the average insured income and average wage. Under the rates of the salary increase, established in the basic macroeconomic forecast, the correlation between the average size of insured income and average wage size shall decrease from 57,1% in 2006 to 36,535,5% in 20202025. Further the value of this index shall stabilize and shall increase slightly due to the decrease of the rates of salary growth (Picture 7.8). Picture 7.8. Thus, in order to avoid a sharp decrease of the average pension size in the process of changing to the calculation of pensions using only the new formula, it is necessary to develop a mechanism for the indexation of the average monthly insured income. However, this mechanism should be carefully thought out, since excessive indexation could lead to the deregulation of the pension system. The Picture 7.9 presents the data on which impact shall have on the size of the replacement rate and pension system equilibrium the adoption of the decision on indexation of the average monthly insured income according to the inflation growth rates, envisaged in the macroeconomic forecast of the basic year. It is clear seen on the graph that the indexation of the average monthly insured income allows to increase the replacement rate, calculated for the whole pension system at the end of the forecast period by 45%. However, this leads to the deficit of the pension budget at the end of the same forecast period. At the same time it is to be mentioned that during a long period of time (almost up to 2045) the pension system shall be characterized by proficit. To the appearance of the deficit at the end of the forecast period could contribute the unfavorable demographic situation, the impact of which could be adjusted by changing the retirement age.
Picture 7.9. Pension system balance. Change of the retirement age As it is known the change of the retirement age has a tonic influence on the pension system. By increasing the retirement age the number of employed grows up and the number of pensioners decreases, as result the coefficient of pension burden is reduced, while the possible replacement rate grows up. The Picture 7.10 presents the graph of the change of pension burden under various combinations of changing the retirement age, established by the legislation. The maximum effect could be reached if increase the retirement age for men and women by 65 years. In this case at the end of the forecast period the coefficient of pension burden shall decrease by 1,3 times compared to the same coefficient of pension burden, which at the end of the same forecast period shall give the age of 62/57. The increase of the retirement age for men up to 65 years and for women up to 60 years shall reduce this coefficient by 1,15 times. The reduction of the retirement age and its establishment at the level of 60 years for men and 55 years for women shall lead to a certain growth of the coefficient of pension burden – by 1,07 times. Generally in the forecast period the coefficient of pension burden shall grow up in case of using as the retirement age, established by the law: 65/65 years – by 1,7 times, 65/60 years – by 1,9 times, 62/57 years – by 2,2, 60/55 years – by 2,4 times. Picture 7.10. Coefficient of pension burden. Thus, it could be concluded that the burden on pension system shall grow up under any retirement ages, established by the law. This is related to unfavorable tendencies in the demographic situation, population ageing and, as result, increase of the coefficient of pension burden. However, the increase of the retirement age shall allow smoothing the unfavorable tendencies. The Picture 7.11 presents the data, characterizing the correlation between different values of the coefficient of pension burden and coefficient, reflecting the pension burden at the retirement age of 62/57 years. Picture 7.11. Change of the coefficient of pension burden. As it was mentioned the increase of the retirement age allows to increase the possible replacement rate of the pension system. The Picture 7.12 presents the data on how the value of this index shall change under different variants of the retirement age change. It is clear seen that under any variant of the pension age change the decrease of the replacement rate cannot be avoided at the end of the forecast period. At the same time the increase of the pension age, for example up to 65 years for men and women, allows to increase the possible replacement rate in 2050 year by almost 30% compared to the coefficient, which could be obtained in case of keeping the pension age at the current level (Picture 7.13). Besides, any increase of the retirement age gives a not bad effect at the beginning of the increase, allowing to keep from decrease and increase the possible replacement rate. Picture 7.12. Possible replacement rate.
Picture 7.13. Change of the possible replacement rate. Although the change of the retirement age changes significantly the possible replacement rate (in 2050 it shall increase by 30%), the absolute value of the replacement rate is not great. Therefore, all problems cannot be solved only by the increase of the retirement age. Now in Moldova the sizes of the insurance contributions differ significantly for different categories of payers (the hired nonagricultural workers pay much more). In future we should aspire to make the sizes of insurance contributions more equitable. Change of insurance contributions The pension legislation of the Republic of Moldova envisages for different categories of payers different sizes of insurance contributions that leads to serious redistribution processes within the pension system and, as result, to the discrepancy between the volume of pension contributions and volume of pension payments, received by certain categories of pensioners. Hereinafter are presented certain outputs of the modeling, carried out for the purpose of determining the value of the possible replacement rate, which could be obtained in case of:
The outputs of the modeling under the first scenario are presented on the Picture 7.14, under the second – on the Picture 7.15. Picture 7.14. Possible replacement rate of hired nonagricultural workers under the Ist scenario.
Picture 7.15. Comparison of possible replacement rates. Working pensioners Now according to the current legislation the pensions of working pensioners are not reconsidered despite the fact that they continue to work and pay pension contributions. The share of these contributions in the total volume of pension contributions constituted in 2005 – 5,6%. In a longterm perspective, this index shall have the tendency to growth and at the end of the forecast period (2050 year) it could constitute up to 13%. The tendencies of changing the number of working pensioners and share of their contributions in the total volume of pension contributions are presented on the Picture 7.16. It is to be mentioned that in this case only working pensioners over the retirement age are considered. Picture 7.16. It was considered the scenario, according to which all contributions of working pensioners are used only for pension recalculation, although earlier they were actually redistributed among all pensioners. Based on this it was calculated the replacement rate, which can get the man, working continuously from the age of 20 (since 2000) and having the wage corresponding to the average wage in the country, under the following scenario assumptions: scenario 1 – the man is retired at the age of 62; scenario 2 – the man postpones its retirement (by one, two, three years and over); scenario 3 – the man is retired at the age of 62, but continues to work and its pension is recalculated each year. The addition to the pension from paid contributions is calculated as the sum of contributions, divided to the residual life expectancy in months. The obtained replacement rates are presented on the Picture 7.17. Picture 7.17. Replacement rate 