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Legislation Publications Pension models About project Statistics
Legislation Publications Pension models About project Statistics

1. Introduction

2. Fundamentals of Moldova’s Pension Legislation
2.1. General Principles
2.2. Insurance Contributions and the Tax Base
2.3. Types of Pensions and Terms and Conditions of Their Assignment
2.3.1. Old-age Pensions
2.3.2. Invalidity Pensions
2.3.3. Survivor’s Pensions
2.3.4. Pensions to Specific Categories of Population
2.3.5. Social Pensions/Benefits
2.3.6. Pensions Paid at the Account of the State Budget
2.4. The Minimal Pension and Guaranteed Minimum
2.5. Pension Indexing

3. The Present-Day Demographic Setting
3.1. General Population Changes
3.2. Fertility
3.3. Mortality and Life Expectancy
3.4. Population Growth and Migration
3.5. The Base Demographic Forecast

4. Demographic Trends in the Economic Activity of the Population
4.1. Demographic Factors Affecting the Number of Population at the Economically Active Age
4.2. The Profiles and Dynamics of the Economic Activity of the Population
4.3. Projection Scenarios for the Economic Activity of the Population

5. General Employment Issues

6. Payers of Pension Contributions
6.1. The Profile and Number of Pension Contribution Payers
6.2. Projection Scenarios for Insurance Contribution Payers

7. Recipients of Pensions/Benefits
7.1. Profile of Pension Recipients
7.2. Old-Age Pensioners
7.3. Invalidity Pensioners
7.4. Recipients of Pensions for Survivors
7.5. Recipients of Social Pensions/Benefits
7.6. Forecast of Pensioner Numbers

8. Present-Day Macroeconomic Environment
8.1. Historical Background
8.2. Base Macroeconomic Forecast

9. Software Complex
9.1. Mission and Structure of the Software
9.2. Computation Scenario Block
9.3. Demography Block
9.4. Macroeconomics Block
9.5. Receipts Block (Calculation of Contributions)
9.6. Expenditure Block
9.7. Output and Reports

10. Approbation of the Model
10.1. Modelling Scenarios
10.2. Simulation Output
10.3. Computations on the Pension Calculator

Annex 1. Base scenario




Development of the Analytical Model of the Republic of Moldova’s Pension System

Annex 1. Base scenario

Demographic forecast

 

2003

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

All population

3 618

3 639

3 644

3 513

3 298

3 061

    - males

1 733

1 750

1 764

1 704

1 599

1 483

    - females

1 885

1 889

1 880

1 810

1 700

1 578

0 - 14

750

611

643

542

445

424

    - males

384

313

330

278

229

218

    - females

366

298

313

264

216

206

15 - pension age

2 355

2 488

2 314

2 244

2 060

1 703

    - males

1 181

1 277

1 211

1 171

1 100

926

    - females

1 175

1 211

1 104

1 073

960

776

pension age +

513

540

687

727

793

935

    - males

169

159

223

255

270

339

    - females

344

381

463

472

524

596

Men on 100 women

92.0

92.6

93.8

94.1

94.1

94.0

Rate of growth

 

 

 

 

 

 

0 - 14

 

0.99

1.00

0.97

0.99

0.99

15 - pension age

 

1.00

0.99

1.00

0.99

0.98

pension age +

 

1.01

1.02

1.00

1.01

1.01

Structure of the population (%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

0 - 14

20.73

16.79

17.64

15.44

13.50

13.84

15 - pension age

65.09

68.38

63.51

63.87

62.45

55.62

pension age +

14.18

14.83

18.85

20.70

24.05

30.54

Demography dependency ratio

0.22

0.22

0.30

0.32

0.39

0.55

  0-14 / 15 - pension age

0.32

0.25

0.28

0.24

0.22

0.25

pension age + / 15- pension age

0.22

0.22

0.30

0.32

0.39

0.55

System dependency ratio

0.64

0.62

0.72

0.79

0.92

1.18

    - males

0.49

0.44

0.53

0.60

0.67

0.88

    - females

0.78

0.80

0.92

1.00

1.19

1.51

Fertility rate

0.00

1.40

1.45

1.45

1.45

1.45

Life expectancy

 

 

 

 

 

 

    - males

 

 

 

 

 

 

at birth

64.06

66.01

67.09

68.17

69.24

70.32

pension age

62

62

62

62

62

62

    - females

 

 

 

 

 

 

at birth

71.25

72.04

72.91

73.98

75.04

76.11

pension age

57

57

57

57

57

57

Macroeconomic forecast

 

2003

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

GDP

27 619

67 576

171 688

349 736

597 044

915 638

Nominal GDP growth (%)

16.6

10.8

8.5

6.4

4.8

4.1

Real GDP growth (%)

8.4

5.0

4.3

3.1

2.2

2.0

Real productivity growth

8.4

3.9

4.5

3.6

3.2

3.8

Wage Bill

6 888

23 062

67 361

141 126

241 585

371 882

    - males

3 358

11 454

34 284

72 399

125 955

196 686

    - females

3 530

11 608

33 077

68 727

115 630

175 196

Employees

891

2 729

7 687

16 799

30 674

54 405

Real wage growth

8.4

6.3

5.3

3.7

3.2

3.8

Employees agraculture

498.6

1 527.5

4 302.7

9 402.8

17 168.7

30 451.5

Real wage growth

8.4

6.3

5.3

3.7

3.2

3.8

Inflation level

11.6

5.5

4.1

3.2

2.5

2.0

Subsistence minimum

628

1 266

2 421

3 930

5 732

7 955

Labor market

 

2003

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Active population

1 474

1 602

1 635

1 570

1 466

1 269

    - males

731

809

838

811

770

673

    - females

742

793

796

759

696

595

Unemployed

117

125

117

111

101

84

    - males

70

77

73

69

64

53

    - females

47

49

45

42

37

30

Number of workers

1 045

1 138

1 173

1 127

1 055

915

    - males

509

565

594

575

547

481

    - females

535

574

580

553

508

434

Contributors (Employees)

644

704

730

700

656

570

    - males

314

350

372

359

342

301

    - females

330

354

359

341

314

268

Contributors (SelfEmployed)

163

178

184

178

164

140

    - males

79

88

93

90

86

75

    - females

83

89

91

87

78

65

Contributors (Farmers)

34

37

38

36

34

30

    - males

17

18

19

19

18

15

    - females

17

19

19

18

16

14

Contributors (Employees agraculture)

203

220

222

213

201

176

    - males

99

108

110

107

102

89

    - females

104

111

112

106

99

87

Pension system

 

2003

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Contribution rate

 

 

 

 

 

 

Employees

26

26

26

26

26

26

Employees agraculture

17.6

17.6

17.6

17.6

17.6

17.6

Fixed contribution for selfemployed

600

1 635

4 131

8 299

14 218

23 526

rate of growth

17.93

10.79

8.48

6.25

5.18

5.09

Fixed contribution for farmers

150

409

1 033

2 075

3 554

5 881

rate of growth

17.93

10.79

8.48

6.25

5.18

5.09

Pension age

 

 

 

 

 

 

    - males

62

62

62

62

62

62

    - females

57

57

57

57

57

57

Length of service (employees)

 

 

 

 

37.8

37.8

    - males

38.1

38.1

38.1

38.1

38.1

38.1

    - females

34.0

34.0

34.0

34.0

34.0

34.0

Length of service (employees agraculture)

 

 

 

 

 

 

    - males

28.2

28.2

28.2

28.2

28.2

28.2

    - females

25.2

25.2

25.2

25.2

25.2

25.2

Average isured wage at time of retirement in % to last wage

 

 

 

 

 

 

    - males

0.0

50.5

40.7

35.8

33.6

25.4

    - females

0.0

50.5

40.7

35.8

33.6

19.9

Minimum pension for agriculture pensioners

200.0

455.6

974.9

1 724.2

2 683.0

3 996.5

Minimum pension for non agriculture pensioners

180.0

410.0

877.4

1 551.8

2 414.7

3 596.8

 

100.0

201.5

385.6

625.8

912.7

1 266.8

Collection rate employees

0.90

0.90

0.90

0.90

0.90

0.90

Collection rate employees agraculture

0.80

0.90

0.90

0.90

0.90

0.90

Collection rate selfemployees

0.50

0.50

0.50

0.50

0.50

0.50

Collection rate farmers

0.40

0.40

0.40

0.40

0.40

0.40

Privilege rate

0.85

0.85

0.85

0.85

0.85

0.85

Regression rate

0.95

0.95

0.95

0.95

0.95

0.95

Pension indexation after retirement

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pension indexation after retirement for agricultuere employees (% )

13.0

8.8

6.8

5.1

4.2

3.9

Pension indexation after retirement for non agricultuere employees (% )

13.0

8.8

6.8

5.1

4.2

3.9

Pension indexation after retirement for disabled (% )

13.0

8.8

6.8

5.1

4.2

3.9

Total pensioners

 

2003

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Total pensioners (excluding social pensioners)

623

666

801

845

918

1 022

Old age pensioners (industry)

188

201

253

267

293

342

Old age pensioners (agriculture)

283

302

379

401

440

513

Pensionres by disability

117

135

145

152

164

148

Survivors

33

26

22

23

19

17

Other pensioners

2

2

2

2

3

3

The current year

 

 

 

 

 

 

Old age pensioners (industry)

7.4

11.5

15.2

13.0

17.0

17.3

Old age pensioners (agriculture)

11.0

17.3

22.8

19.5

25.5

26.0

Old age pensioners (industry)

188.5

201.0

252.5

267.4

293.2

341.7

    - males

62.3

60.3

82.9

93.1

99.6

124.1

    - females

126.2

140.8

169.7

174.4

193.7

217.6

The current year

7.4

11.5

15.2

13.0

17.0

17.3

    - males

3.9

3.4

6.8

5.2

7.2

8.8

    - females

3.5

8.1

8.4

7.8

9.9

8.5

Old age pensioners (agriculture)

283

302

379

401

440

513

    - males

93

90

124

140

149

186

    - females

189

211

255

262

291

326

The current year

11

17

23

19

26

26

    - males

6

5

10

8

11

13

    - females

5

12

13

12

15

13

Pensionres by disability

117.1

135.2

145.1

151.9

163.7

148.2

    - males

60.0

69.0

77.6

80.5

87.3

82.6

    - females

57.1

66.3

67.5

71.4

76.4

65.6

The current year

5.9

6.8

7.3

7.6

8.2

7.4

    - males

3.0

3.4

3.9

4.0

4.4

4.1

    - females

2.9

3.3

3.4

3.6

3.8

3.3

Survivors

33.0

26.2

22.3

22.6

18.6

16.6

    - males

15.7

12.2

10.1

10.4

8.3

7.4

    - females

17.3

14.0

12.1

12.3

10.3

9.2

Other pensioners

1.6

1.8

2.2

2.3

2.6

2.9

    - males

0.7

0.8

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.4

    - females

0.9

1.0

1.2

1.2

1.4

1.4

Social pensioners

42.4

42.9

49.2

50.1

51.9

57.9

    - males

16.9

16.2

18.8

19.7

19.6

22.4

    - females

25.5

26.6

30.4

30.5

32.2

35.5

Pension level

 

2003

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Average pension for all pensioners (excluding social pensioners)

213

552

1 388

2 570

3 906

5 269

Old age pensioners (industry)

238

625

1 614

3 036

4 668

6 335

Old age pensioners (agriculture)

209

533

1 329

2 433

3 643

4 855

Pensionres by disability

195

511

1 243

2 299

3 524

4 868

Survivors

139

365

943

1 773

2 726

3 700

Other pensioners

664

1 743

4 504

8 470

13 023

17 675

The current year

 

 

 

 

 

 

Old age pensioners (industry)

238

793

1 765

3 059

4 512

5 236

Old age pensioners (agriculture)

209

638

1 373

2 308

3 287

3 738

Old age pensioners (industry)

238

625

1 614

3 036

4 668

6 335

    - males

238

639

1 753

3 323

5 210

7 313

    - females

238

619

1 547

2 883

4 389

5 778

The current year

238

793

1 765

3 059

4 512

5 236

    - males

238

841

1 888

3 383

5 128

6 260

    - females

238

773

1 666

2 844

4 064

4 181

Old age pensioners (agriculture)

209

533

1 329

2 433

3 643

4 855

    - males

209

540

1 391

2 552

3 866

5 228

    - females

209

530

1 299

2 370

3 529

4 643

The current year

209

638

1 373

2 308

3 287

3 738

    - males

209

672

1 457

2 523

3 684

4 382

    - females

209

624

1 305

2 166

2 999

3 074

Pensionres by disability

195

511

1 243

2 299

3 524

4 868

    - males

195

511

1 241

2 295

3 520

4 871

    - females

195

512

1 244

2 303

3 530

4 865

The current year

0

687

1 445

2 366

3 254

3 895

    - males

0

685

1 443

2 360

3 258

3 911

    - females

0

688

1 449

2 374

3 249

3 876

Survivors

139.0

364.9

942.8

1 773.0

2 726.1

3 700.0

Other pensioners

664.0

1 742.9

4 503.7

8 469.6

13 022.6

17 675.0

Social pensioners

150.0

393.7

1 017.4

1 913.3

2 941.8

3 992.8

Replacement ratios

 

2003

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Replacement ratios for all insured

23.9

20.2

18.1

15.3

12.7

9.7

    - males

 

 

 

 

 

 

All pensioners (excluding social pensioners)

23.6

20.2

18.8

16.1

13.6

10.7

Old age pensioners (industry)

26.7

23.4

22.8

19.8

17.0

13.4

Old age pensioners (agriculture)

23.5

19.8

18.1

15.2

12.6

9.6

Pensionres by disability

21.9

18.7

16.1

13.7

11.5

9.0

Survivors

15.6

13.4

12.3

10.6

8.9

6.8

Other pensioners

74.5

63.9

58.6

50.4

42.5

32.5

The current year

 

 

 

 

 

 

Old age pensioners (industry)

26.7

30.8

24.6

20.1

16.7

11.5

Old age pensioners (agriculture)

23.5

24.6

19.0

15.0

12.0

8.1

    - females

 

 

 

 

 

 

All pensioners (excluding social pensioners)

24.1

20.2

17.6

14.8

12.2

9.0

Old age pensioners (industry)

26.7

22.7

20.1

17.2

14.3

10.6

Old age pensioners (agriculture)

23.5

19.4

16.9

14.1

11.5

8.5

Pensionres by disability

21.9

18.7

16.2

13.7

11.5

8.9

Survivors

15.6

13.4

12.3

10.6

8.9

6.8

Other pensioners

74.5

63.9

58.6

50.4

42.5

32.5

The current year

 

 

 

 

 

 

Old age pensioners (industry)

26.7

26.6

21.7

17.3

13.9

9.4

Old age pensioners (agriculture)

23.5

21.9

17.3

13.4

10.5

6.9

Affordable replacement rate for all pensioners

21.5

22.2

19.1

17.3

14.9

11.6

Old age pensioners (industry)

64.6

66.2

54.6

49.5

42.3

31.5

Old age pensioners (agriculture)

4.1

4.6

3.8

3.5

2.9

2.2

Pensionres by disability

19.8

20.6

17.1

15.5

13.5

10.7

Survivors

14.1

14.7

13.0

12.0

10.4

8.2

Other pensioners

67.3

70.1

62.0

57.2

49.8

39.0

Nominal pension indexation after retirement

12.8

11.0

7.9

5.2

3.7

2.4

Affordable pension indexation after retirement

27.8

11.7

7.8

6.0

3.6

3.5

Income

 

2003

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Total income

1 517

5 062

14 771

30 824

52 540

80 637

Total contributions

1 435

4 840

14 111

29 557

50 504

77 559

Total contributions for employees (industry)

1 302

4 358

12 728

26 666

45 649

70 269

Total contributors for employees (agriculture)

111

417

1 213

2 562

4 327

6 528

Total contributions for selfemployed

10

30

78

151

243

348

Total contributions for farmers

12

36

92

177

285

413

Budget transfert

83

222

660

1 267

2 036

3 078

Total income in % to GDP

5.5

7.5

8.6

8.8

8.8

8.8

Payments

 

2003

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Total payments

1 666

4 610

13 943

27 222

44 868

67 390

All pensioners (excluding social pensioners)

1 589

4 407

13 342

26 069

43 035

64 615

Old age pensioners (industry)

538

1 507

4 892

9 742

16 425

25 979

Old age pensioners (agriculture)

709

1 917

5 915

11 423

18 666

28 631

Pensionres by disability

274

830

2 164

4 191

6 925

8 659

Survivors

55

115

252

482

609

736

Other pensioners

13

39

119

232

410

610

The current year

 

 

 

 

 

 

Old age pensioners (industry)

1.8

9.1

26.8

39.7

76.8

90.8

Old age pensioners (agriculture)

2.3

11.0

31.3

45.0

84.0

97.2

Social pensioners

76

202

601

1 151

1 831

2 773

Other payments

0

0

0

1

1

2

Total payments in % to GDP

6.0

6.8

8.1

7.8

7.5

7.4

Percent in pension payments

 

 

 

 

 

 

Old age pensioners (industry)

32.3

32.7

35.1

35.8

36.6

38.6

Old age pensioners (agriculture)

42.6

41.6

42.4

42.0

41.6

42.5

Pensionres by disability

16.4

18.0

15.5

15.4

15.4

12.8

Survivors

3.3

2.5

1.8

1.8

1.4

1.1

Other pensioners

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

Social pensioners

4.6

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.1

Balance

 

2003

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

The current balance

-148.16

452.09

827.88

3 602.57

7 672.16

13 246.38

Obligations of the government

148

0

0

0

0

0

The current balance in % to GDP

-0.54

0.67

0.48

1.03

1.29

1.45

Balance excluding transfert in % to GDP

-0.56

0.64

0.45

1.00

1.25

1.41


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