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1. Introduction 2. Fundamentals of Moldova’s Pension Legislation 3. The Present-Day Demographic Setting 4. Demographic Trends in the Economic Activity of the Population 6. Payers of Pension Contributions 7. Recipients of Pensions/Benefits 8. Present-Day Macroeconomic Environment 9. Software Complex 10. Approbation of the Model Annex 1. Base scenario
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Development of the Analytical Model of the Republic of Moldova’s Pension System
3. The Present-Day Demographic Setting3.1. General Population ChangesThe last decade of the 20th century saw essential changes in Moldova’s demographic tendencies which can be traced in population numbers. Table 3.1 gives data on population numbers in their differentiation by sex. The figures say that in 1970-1990 the population was monotone increasing from 3.57 to 4.36 million persons, an increase of more than 22 % over 20 years. After 1990 population of the Republic of Moldova started to diminish and in 2003 its number was 4.23 million, an average annual loss of around 10 thousand persons over that period (see Fig. 3.1). Table 3.1: Population, by sex
* Data for the entire territory of the Republic of Moldova. In the context of sex, age, or residence (urban/rural area) the above population changes were going at different pace. Most obvious are changes in the proportion of urban/rural population (see Table 3.2). Over the period of 1970-1990 the urban population increased by almost 16 %, over the following 13 years it declined by 2 % and in 2003 made up 45.3 % of the total population or 41 % of the total, if population of Transnistria and Bendery Municipy is excluded (see Table 3.3)
Fig. 3.1. Population changes in Moldova, in differentiation by sex and residence Table 3.2: Population, by location of residence
The population was gradually ageing during the whole period observed, 1970-2002 (see Table 3.4). In 1970 there were 9.7 persons above 60 per 100 persons of population, the figure rose to 12.8 by 1990 and to 13.8 by 2004. There was a simultaneous and rather sharp decline in the number of children under 15. In 1995 children made up 28.6 % of the population, while just 21.8 % in 2004. Thus the children’s share in the population was decreasing at the average rate of 0.5 percentage points per year during the last 15 years. Table 3.3: Population, by residence and sex*
* Population of Transnistria and the Bendery Municipy excluded. Table 3.4: Number of persons of a specified age per 100 persons of population
Since 1970 the male/female population ratio has been most stable of all Moldova’s population indices analysed (see Table 3.1). It was but before 1990 that an insignificant variation of this ratio was registered. Then the men’s share in the population rose by 1 percentage point, while staying at the constant level of 47.8 % in the following years. Age structure of the Moldova’s population is displayed in Table 3.5. It is peculiar for high demographic waves that are a consequence of the upheavals and wars the Republic experienced in the 20th century together with other countries of the former Soviet Union. In more details the age and sex structure of the Moldova’s population is displayed in Fig. 3.2 where it is differentiated both by sex and location of residence. The diagrams show that men and women have similar age structures. It is true of the Republic as a whole, as well as of urban and rural populations in particular. Difference can be found at the level of relatively older age groups, where the women’s structure has a ‘heavier’ top, irrespective of residence. Then, as regards to the urban/rural population pyramid, its urban portion has a more massive ‘middle’ in the age interval between 35 and 55 years. The first difference is a direct result of a higher women’s life expectancy as compared with men’s (see below), while the latter one is likely to be attributed to the above-mentioned fast growth of the urban population during the period of 1970-1990. Subject to such demographic trends the women’s population of Moldova reached the number of 1,885,004 persons in 2003. Women constitute the majority of the country’s population or 52.2 %. But women are not prevailing within all age groups. Among children and young people under 30 there are more male persons than female. In older age groups women do not merely predominate in number but there is a clear correlation, the older is the age group the greater is the women’s share therein. For example, if in the 30-35 age group there are 1019 women per 1000 men, the corresponding ratio for the 85+ age group will be 2684 to 1000 (see Fig. 3.3). In 2003 women were on average 3.2 years older than men, for the women’s average age was 35.4 years while men’s – 32.2. Table 3.5: Age structure of the Moldova’s population
* Data are given for the entire territory of the Republic of Moldova.The population was gradually ageing during the whole period observed, 1970-2002 (see Table 3.4). In 1970 there were 9.7 persons above 60 per 100 persons of population, the figure rose to 12.8 by 1990 and to 13.8 by 2004. There was a simultaneous and rather sharp decline in the number of children under 15. In 1995 children made up 28.6 % of the population, while just 21.8 % in 2004. Thus the children’s share in the population was decreasing at the average rate of 0.5 percentage points per year during the last 15 years. Table 3.3: Population, by residence and sex*
* Population of Transnistria and the Bendery Municipy excluded. Table 3.4: Number of persons of a specified age per 100 persons of population
Since 1970 the male/female population ratio has been most stable of all Moldova’s population indices analysed (see Table 3.1). It was but before 1990 that an insignificant variation of this ratio was registered. Then the men’s share in the population rose by 1 percentage point, while staying at the constant level of 47.8 % in the following years. Age structure of the Moldova’s population is displayed in Table 3.5. It is peculiar for high demographic waves that are a consequence of the upheavals and wars the Republic experienced in the 20th century together with other countries of the former Soviet Union. In more details the age and sex structure of the Moldova’s population is displayed in Fig. 3.2 where it is differentiated both by sex and location of residence. The diagrams show that men and women have similar age structures. It is true of the Republic as a whole, as well as of urban and rural populations in particular. Difference can be found at the level of relatively older age groups, where the women’s structure has a ‘heavier’ top, irrespective of residence. Then, as regards to the urban/rural population pyramid, its urban portion has a more massive ‘middle’ in the age interval between 35 and 55 years. The first difference is a direct result of a higher women’s life expectancy as compared with men’s (see below), while the latter one is likely to be attributed to the above-mentioned fast growth of the urban population during the period of 1970-1990. Subject to such demographic trends the women’s population of Moldova reached the number of 1,885,004 persons in 2003. Women constitute the majority of the country’s population or 52.2 %. But women are not prevailing within all age groups. Among children and young people under 30 there are more male persons than female. In older age groups women do not merely predominate in number but there is a clear correlation, the older is the age group the greater is the women’s share therein. For example, if in the 30-35 age group there are 1019 women per 1000 men, the corresponding ratio for the 85+ age group will be 2684 to 1000 (see Fig. 3.3). In 2003 women were on average 3.2 years older than men, for the women’s average age was 35.4 years while men’s – 32.2. Table 3.5: Age structure of the Moldova’s population
* Data are given for the entire territory of the Republic of Moldova.
Fig. 3.2. Age and sex structure of the Moldova’s population, 2003. Fig. 3.3. Number of women per 1000 men of a corresponding age |
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