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Legislation Publications Pension models About project Statistics
Legislation Publications Pension models About project Statistics

1. Introduction

2. Fundamentals of Moldova’s Pension Legislation
2.1. General Principles
2.2. Insurance Contributions and the Tax Base
2.3. Types of Pensions and Terms and Conditions of Their Assignment
2.3.1. Old-age Pensions
2.3.2. Invalidity Pensions
2.3.3. Survivor’s Pensions
2.3.4. Pensions to Specific Categories of Population
2.3.5. Social Pensions/Benefits
2.3.6. Pensions Paid at the Account of the State Budget
2.4. The Minimal Pension and Guaranteed Minimum
2.5. Pension Indexing

3. The Present-Day Demographic Setting
3.1. General Population Changes
3.2. Fertility
3.3. Mortality and Life Expectancy
3.4. Population Growth and Migration
3.5. The Base Demographic Forecast

4. Demographic Trends in the Economic Activity of the Population
4.1. Demographic Factors Affecting the Number of Population at the Economically Active Age
4.2. The Profiles and Dynamics of the Economic Activity of the Population
4.3. Projection Scenarios for the Economic Activity of the Population

5. General Employment Issues

6. Payers of Pension Contributions
6.1. The Profile and Number of Pension Contribution Payers
6.2. Projection Scenarios for Insurance Contribution Payers

7. Recipients of Pensions/Benefits
7.1. Profile of Pension Recipients
7.2. Old-Age Pensioners
7.3. Invalidity Pensioners
7.4. Recipients of Pensions for Survivors
7.5. Recipients of Social Pensions/Benefits
7.6. Forecast of Pensioner Numbers

8. Present-Day Macroeconomic Environment
8.1. Historical Background
8.2. Base Macroeconomic Forecast

9. Software Complex
9.1. Mission and Structure of the Software
9.2. Computation Scenario Block
9.3. Demography Block
9.4. Macroeconomics Block
9.5. Receipts Block (Calculation of Contributions)
9.6. Expenditure Block
9.7. Output and Reports

10. Approbation of the Model
10.1. Modelling Scenarios
10.2. Simulation Output
10.3. Computations on the Pension Calculator

Annex 1. Base scenario




Development of the Analytical Model of the Republic of Moldova’s Pension System

3.3. Mortality and Life Expectancy

The above-mentioned characteristics of the Moldova’s population age distribution are a direct consequence of the recent rather significant difference between men and women in mortality indices (see Table 3.9). To briefly define gender problems of mortality in Moldova, it is necessary to highlight a several tendencies of great importance. They are the relatively low life expectancy of the population and overmortality among able-bodied men. Suffice it to say that in 2003 the death-rate for men of this age was 759 (per 100,000 men aged 16-62) while for women – only 284 (per 100,000 women aged 16-57). More detailed calculations confirming men’s overmortality are displayed in Fig. 3.6. The diagram tells that the overmortality of men practically does not depend on location of their residence (rural or urban area) and men aged 20-30 have the highest (more than three times) probability to die.

Table 3.8: Probability of death

Age

Urban

Rural

Total population

Men

Women

Both sexes

Men

Women

Both sexes

Men

Women

Both sexes

5

0.0004

0.0005

0.0005

0.0006

0.0006

0.0006

0.0006

0.0005

0.0005

10

0.0004

0.0003

0.0003

0.0005

0.0002

0.0003

0.0005

0.0002

0.0003

15

0.0005

0.0002

0.0003

0.0005

0.0003

0.0004

0.0005

0.0003

0.0004

20

0.0011

0.0004

0.0008

0.0012

0.0004

0.0008

0.0012

0.0004

0.0008

25

0.0018

0.0005

0.0012

0.0019

0.0006

0.0013

0.0019

0.0006

0.0012

30

0.0024

0.0008

0.0016

0.0031

0.0010

0.0020

0.0026

0.0009

0.0017

35

0.0034

0.0013

0.0023

0.0053

0.0018

0.0035

0.0043

0.0016

0.0029

40

0.0057

0.0021

0.0038

0.0069

0.0028

0.0048

0.0064

0.0025

0.0044

45

0.0085

0.0035

0.0059

0.0113

0.0044

0.0077

0.0100

0.0040

0.0069

50

0.0133

0.0056

0.0092

0.0165

0.0073

0.0116

0.0150

0.0065

0.0105

55

0.0194

0.0102

0.0145

0.0260

0.0128

0.0185

0.0227

0.0116

0.0166

60

0.0276

0.0143

0.0204

0.0316

0.0187

0.0240

0.0299

0.0171

0.0226

65

0.0394

0.0223

0.0297

0.0496

0.0279

0.0368

0.0456

0.0259

0.0341

70

0.0558

0.0382

0.0453

0.0705

0.0464

0.0558

0.0658

0.0438

0.0525

75

0.0869

0.0587

0.0687

0.1005

0.0724

0.0825

0.0960

0.0679

0.0779

80

0.1300

0.1025

0.1107

0.1433

0.1276

0.1320

0.1396

0.1187

0.1253

85

0.2126

0.1730

0.1844

0.2252

0.1993

0.2068

0.2219

0.1892

0.1993

90

0.2603

0.2351

0.2415

0.2608

0.2337

0.2420

0.2606

0.2339

0.2417

95

0.2883

0.2913

0.2907

0.3384

0.2793

0.2947

0.3270

0.2826

0.2937

Gender difference in life expectancy is a derivative of the above trends. According to official data over the period of 1996-2002 life expectancy at birth rose for women from 70.4 to 71.7 years and for men – from 62.9 to 64.4 years (see Table 3.9). So there was a gap between men and women in values of this index, equal to 7.3 years in 2002. It is a rather significant gap by international criteria, which is an evidence of serious problems with mortality in the country. It is typical that when moving rightwards along the age axis the difference is levelling between men and women’s residual life expectancies. For example, in 2002 for the age of 30 this difference was 6.4 years while for the age of 60 – just 3.2 years.

Fig. 3.6. Overmortality rate for men

Table 3.9: Life expectancy, years

Year

Sex

Age, years old

0

15

30

45

60

1996

Men

62.9

50.0

36.2

23.9

13.9

Women

70.4

57.2

42.7

28.9

16.9

1997

Men

62.9

50.1

36.3

23.8

13.7

Women

70.3

57.1

42.6

28.7

16.7

1998

Men

64.0

50.9

37.2

24.6

14.4

Women

71.4

58.0

43.5

29.5

17.3

1999

Men

63.7

50.7

36.9

24.3

14.6

Women

71.0

57.8

43.3

29.3

17.1

2000

Men

63.9

50.9

36.9

24.2

14.1

Women

71.2

57.8

43.3

29.3

17.1

2001

Men

64.5

51.4

37.4

24.7

14.5

Women

71.7

58.4

43.7

29.8

17.6

2002

Men

64.4

51.1

37.1

24.4

14.1

Women

71.7

58.1

43.5

29.5

17.3

We need to note that similar problems are typical for most CIS countries. Over the last decade difference between mortality indices of men and women has increased in CIS on the whole, especially within the able-bodied age span, and primarily due to the rise of deaths from unnatural causes (accidents, homicides, suicides, and other external impacts) which, in turn, has affected men and women’s life expectancies. If the present-day mortality level stays stable, newborn boys in Byelorussia, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine will have to live an 11-12 years’ shorter life than girls. In other CIS countries this gap is 5-8 years. On average for CIS the life expectancy index is evaluated as 62 years for men and 72 – for women (in 1991 corresponding figures were 64 and 74). So if analysed against the CIS background, the mortality and life expectancy indices in Moldova may look relatively well, but in comparison with the Western Europe, demographic setting in this country is less optimistic.


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