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Legislation Publications Pension models About project Statistics
Legislation Publications Pension models About project Statistics

1. Introduction

2. Fundamentals of Moldova’s Pension Legislation
2.1. General Principles
2.2. Insurance Contributions and the Tax Base
2.3. Types of Pensions and Terms and Conditions of Their Assignment
2.3.1. Old-age Pensions
2.3.2. Invalidity Pensions
2.3.3. Survivor’s Pensions
2.3.4. Pensions to Specific Categories of Population
2.3.5. Social Pensions/Benefits
2.3.6. Pensions Paid at the Account of the State Budget
2.4. The Minimal Pension and Guaranteed Minimum
2.5. Pension Indexing

3. The Present-Day Demographic Setting
3.1. General Population Changes
3.2. Fertility
3.3. Mortality and Life Expectancy
3.4. Population Growth and Migration
3.5. The Base Demographic Forecast

4. Demographic Trends in the Economic Activity of the Population
4.1. Demographic Factors Affecting the Number of Population at the Economically Active Age
4.2. The Profiles and Dynamics of the Economic Activity of the Population
4.3. Projection Scenarios for the Economic Activity of the Population

5. General Employment Issues

6. Payers of Pension Contributions
6.1. The Profile and Number of Pension Contribution Payers
6.2. Projection Scenarios for Insurance Contribution Payers

7. Recipients of Pensions/Benefits
7.1. Profile of Pension Recipients
7.2. Old-Age Pensioners
7.3. Invalidity Pensioners
7.4. Recipients of Pensions for Survivors
7.5. Recipients of Social Pensions/Benefits
7.6. Forecast of Pensioner Numbers

8. Present-Day Macroeconomic Environment
8.1. Historical Background
8.2. Base Macroeconomic Forecast

9. Software Complex
9.1. Mission and Structure of the Software
9.2. Computation Scenario Block
9.3. Demography Block
9.4. Macroeconomics Block
9.5. Receipts Block (Calculation of Contributions)
9.6. Expenditure Block
9.7. Output and Reports

10. Approbation of the Model
10.1. Modelling Scenarios
10.2. Simulation Output
10.3. Computations on the Pension Calculator

Annex 1. Base scenario




Development of the Analytical Model of the Republic of Moldova’s Pension System

3.5.   The Base Demographic Forecast

Moldova has not got any official long-term demographic forecast up to 2050 and for that reason a base demographic forecast for the purpose of modelling the Moldova’s pension system has been done with applying the demographic block of the Analytical Model of the Republic of Moldova’s Pension System. The two types of data used as scenario parameters were as follows:

(1) actual data of the national statistics system on the age and sex structure of the Moldova’s population for 2002 and 2003 (see Fig. 3.2), 2002 birth-rates (Table 3.7), and probabilities of death for 2003 differentiated by sex and age, and

(2) projections of prospective changes in demographic indices of mortality and fertility which are displayed in Fig. 3.8 in descending order as follows: women’s life expectancy, men’s life expectancy, mother’s mean age, infant mortality rate, total fertility rate (in a brief form these data are given in Table 3.11).

Fig. 3.8. Scenario parameters of the demographic forecast

Table 3.11: Scenario parameters of the demographic forecast

Year

Total fertility rate

Mother’s mean age, years old

Life expectancy, years

Infant mortality rate

Men

Women

2003

1.31

26.03

64.1

71.2

13.89

2004

1.33

26.13

64.7

71.6

13.51

2005

1.35

26.23

65.3

71.9

13.14

2010

1.40

26.70

66.0

72.0

11.25

2015

1.45

27.06

66.6

72.4

9.36

2020

1.45

27.42

67.1

72.9

7.47

2025

1.45

27.78

67.6

73.4

6.01

2030

1.45

27.78

68.2

74.0

5.01

2035

1.45

27.78

68.7

74.5

4.42

2040

1.45

27.78

69.2

75.0

4.07

2045

1.45

27.78

69.8

75.6

3.87

2050

1.45

27.78

70.3

76.1

3.75

The base demographic forecast has been calculated on the assumption of migration absent. However the model made is capable of taking it into consideration by entering actual numbers of persons arrived in or departed from the country during the year. Calculations apply age and sex profiles of those arrived in or departed from the country which are built on the basis of the relevant Russian data (see Fig. 3.9).

Fig. 3.9. Age and sex profiles of migrants

Fig. 3.10 demonstrates results of the demographic forecast of the Moldova’s population (territory of Transnistria and the Bendery Municipy excluded). The forecast tells that on the scenario assumptions population of Moldova will be monotone decreasing down to 3,060,000 persons by 2050, i.e. 85 % of the present-day total.

Fig. 3.10. Forecast of the Moldova’s population (Transnistria and Bendery Municipy excluded)

We should notice that any population decrease does not seriously affect the pension system. The main trouble is not a population decrease but rather a change in its age and sex structure. According to calculations there are still negative phenomena in Moldova related to the population ageing and fertility decrease. It is therefore expected that the burden of elderly persons to the Moldovan society will be rising while number of children declining. Fig. 3.11 exhibits the above tendencies leading to appearing by 2050 such conditions where each 100 of the Moldova’s population will include on average 30 persons above 60 and 15 children under 15 years old.

Fig. 3.11. Forecast of demographic burden indices


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