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Законодательство Публикации Пенсионные модели О проекте Статистика
Законодательство Публикации Пенсионные модели О проекте Статистика

1. Введение

2. Основы пенсионного законодательства Республики Молдова
2.1. Общие принципы
2.2. Страховые взносы и налогооблагаемая база
2.3. Виды пенсий и условия их назначения
2.3.1. Пенсии по возрасту
2.3.2. Пенсии по инвалидности
2.3.3. Пенсии по случаю потери кормильца
2.3.4. Пенсии некоторым категориям граждан
2.3.5. Социальные пенсии/пособия
2.3.6. Пенсии, выплачиваемые за счет государственного бюджета
2.4. Минимальная пенсия и гарантированный минимум
2.5. Индексация пенсий

3. Современная демографическая ситуация
3.1. Общая динамика численности населения
3.2. Рождаемость
3.3. Смертность и продолжительность жизни
3.4. Естественное движение населения и миграция
3.5. Базовый демографический прогноз

4. Демографические тенденции в экономической активности населения
4.1. Демографические факторы изменения численности населения в возрасте экономической активности
4.2. Структура и динамика экономической активности населения
4.3. Сценарии прогноза экономической активности населения

5. Общие вопросы занятости

6. Плательщики пенсионных взносов
6.1. Структура и численность плательщиков пенсионных взносов
6.2. Сценарии прогноза плательщиков пенсионных взносов

7. Получатели пенсионных взносов
7.1. Структура получателей пенсий
7.2. Пенсионеры по возрасту
7.3. Пенсионеры по инвалидности
7.4. Пенсионеры по случаю потери кормильца
7.5. Пенсионеры, получатели социальных пенсий/пособий
7.6. Прогноз численности пенсионеров

8. Современная макроэкономическая ситуация
8.1. Исторический опыт
8.2. Базовый макроэкономический прогноз

9. Программный комплекс
9.1. Назначение и структура программ
9.2. Блок формирования сценариев расчета
9.3. Демографический блок
9.4. Макроэкономический блок
9.5. Блок Доходов (Расчет взносов)
9.6. Блок Расходов
9.7. Результаты и Отчеты

10. Апробация модели
10.1. Сценарии моделирования
10.2. Результаты моделирования
10.3. Расчеты на пенсионном калькулятор

Пенсионная система Республики Молдова: модель и сценарии развития

4. Demographic Trends in the Economic Activity of the Population

4.1.   Demographic Factors Affecting the Number of Population at the Economically Active Age

A yearly change in the number of a given age group of adult population is determined by (1) the proportion between the sizes of the cohorts that, by their age, enter and fall out of the age group, (2) the mortality inside the cohorts that comprise the age group, and (3) the proportion between the number of out-migrants and in-migrants within the age group. It is understood that current birth rate changes affect the dynamics of the adult population only with a certain time lag. For example, a projection of the change in the number of persons within the potential economically active age (from 15 to 72 years old) made up to the year 2020 would be invariant to birth rate change scenarios.

Let us note that out of the three factors mentioned above only the mortality factor inevitably leads to a decrease in the potential number of the economically active population. Policy measures can reasonably mitigate, but not totally neutralize the impact of this factor. Migration can entail a decrease or an increase in the number of the said age group. The migration factor is known to be highly affected by policy measures. At the same time, the proportion between the sizes of the cohorts of persons who enter and fall out of the workforce age largely depends on the demographic past of a country, and therefore is not affected by present-day government policies. Thus the cohort effect should be regarded as a fixed fact.

As in other countries that formerly constituted the USSR and have survived numerous wars and social disasters, the number of persons in the pre-retirement age cohort in the Republic of Moldova may in the nearest future exceed (!) the number of persons in the 15-year-old cohort, i.e. the number of persons who will soon enter the country’s labor force (see Figure 4.1.). The proportion between the positive impact of the cohort effect and the negative impact of mortality appears to be the dominating factor which determines the change in the potential number of the economically active population. The role of the migration factor in this process is subsidiary, as it is only capable of introducing minor “adjustments” to the outcome of the competition between the first two components.1 At the same time, however, the role of migration should not be underestimated or ignored, especially when dealing with groups of able-bodied population – men aged 15 to 61 and women aged 15 to 56.

Obviously, the differences in the reproduction mechanisms for able-bodied men and women are accounted for by the overmortality of men at the workforce age (see Figure 3.6). The relatively high life expectancy for women only increases the dependence of the change in the number of women at the workforce age upon the demographic trends observed in the past. As a result, the number of persons in the cohorts exceeding the retirement age is likely to be comparable in 2005 to the number of persons in the young cohorts that approach the workforce age, and is expected to surpass the latter by the year 2010. The ratio between the number of the 15-year olds and the number of the 72-year olds has been maintained at a rather high level in recent years – about three times for women and about five times for men. With time, the positive role of the cohort effect is expected to diminish (as a result of the sharp decline in birth rates in the late 1980s – see Figure 3.4).

Figure 4.1. Ratios between the cohorts that enter and fall out of the economically active age group, by gender

The weakening of the positive impact of the cohort effect in the nearest years is therefore likely to become a decisive factor for the projected decrease in the absolute number of the workforce age population and of the potential economically active age population. Unless drastic measures to reduce the mortality of the workforce age population (especially, this refers to male mortality rates) are undertaken, the impact of this factor on the potential number of the economically active population is likely to outperform the cohort effect by the year 2014 (see Figure 4.2), and the number of persons in the aforementioned age group will begin to decrease. It should be noted that, in all likelihood, this trend will continue to strengthen over the coming years due to increased out-migration, which is not reflected in our calculations. Therefore, special focus should be given to a reasonable government policy on external migration which may somewhat mitigate the negative consequences of the decreasing potential number of the country’s economically active population.

Fig. 4.2. Annual increases in the number of population aged 15 to 72, by component

1. This is one of the reasons why the demographic projection was made under a zero migration scenario. Another reason is the lack of necessary statistical information on migration processes currently underway in the Republic of Moldova.

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