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Legislation Publications Pension models About project Statistics
Legislation Publications Pension models About project Statistics

1. Introduction

2. Fundamentals of Moldova’s Pension Legislation
2.1. General Principles
2.2. Insurance Contributions and the Tax Base
2.3. Types of Pensions and Terms and Conditions of Their Assignment
2.3.1. Old-age Pensions
2.3.2. Invalidity Pensions
2.3.3. Survivor’s Pensions
2.3.4. Pensions to Specific Categories of Population
2.3.5. Social Pensions/Benefits
2.3.6. Pensions Paid at the Account of the State Budget
2.4. The Minimal Pension and Guaranteed Minimum
2.5. Pension Indexing

3. The Present-Day Demographic Setting
3.1. General Population Changes
3.2. Fertility
3.3. Mortality and Life Expectancy
3.4. Population Growth and Migration
3.5. The Base Demographic Forecast

4. Demographic Trends in the Economic Activity of the Population
4.1. Demographic Factors Affecting the Number of Population at the Economically Active Age
4.2. The Profiles and Dynamics of the Economic Activity of the Population
4.3. Projection Scenarios for the Economic Activity of the Population

5. General Employment Issues

6. Payers of Pension Contributions
6.1. The Profile and Number of Pension Contribution Payers
6.2. Projection Scenarios for Insurance Contribution Payers

7. Recipients of Pensions/Benefits
7.1. Profile of Pension Recipients
7.2. Old-Age Pensioners
7.3. Invalidity Pensioners
7.4. Recipients of Pensions for Survivors
7.5. Recipients of Social Pensions/Benefits
7.6. Forecast of Pensioner Numbers

8. Present-Day Macroeconomic Environment
8.1. Historical Background
8.2. Base Macroeconomic Forecast

9. Software Complex
9.1. Mission and Structure of the Software
9.2. Computation Scenario Block
9.3. Demography Block
9.4. Macroeconomics Block
9.5. Receipts Block (Calculation of Contributions)
9.6. Expenditure Block
9.7. Output and Reports

10. Approbation of the Model
10.1. Modelling Scenarios
10.2. Simulation Output
10.3. Computations on the Pension Calculator

Annex 1. Base scenario




Development of the Analytical Model of the Republic of Moldova’s Pension System

6.2. Projection Scenarios for Insurance Contribution Payers

Based on the obtained assessments, we have chosen the profile of the insurance contribution payers presented in the right column of Table 6.3. In our opinion, the somewhat overestimated share of farmers can be justified by the good prospects for an increase in the number of payers in this category because, as was mentioned above, not all agricultural land owners have thus far registered their farms.

The projection of the number of pension contribution payers is based on the knowledge of two basic parameters: the number of the economically active population in the corresponding gender and age groups and the level of their employment. The number of the economically active population for the future is set within the framework of the projection described in Section 4.3, whereas the dynamics of the employment levels largely depends on the theories used.

Let us assume that the levels of employment in a stable economy are slow-moving in the medium term. Therefore, as in the case of the degree of economic activity, it can be assumed for the Republic of Moldova that by the year 2004 the level of employment and the structure of employment have reached their equilibrium values and are not likely to change in the future.

Obviously, this in not the only possible theory that can be applied to the dynamics of employment levels and structures – they may change in time, but in this case we do not consider such a development trend.

The base projection scenario for the number of pension contribution payers is given in Figure 6.1. This scenario is based on the assumption that the level of employment and the structure of employment have reached their equilibrium values by the year 2004 and will not undergo any substantial changes in the future. That is why the level of employment in that projection is determined exclusively by the level of economic activity of the population of the Republic of Moldova, and, to some extent, resembles its profile.

Fig. 6.1. Projection of the number of pension contribution payers, thousand persons.


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