Home
Legislation Publications Pension models About project Statistics
Legislation Publications Pension models About project Statistics

1. Introduction

2. Fundamentals of Moldova’s Pension Legislation
2.1. General Principles
2.2. Insurance Contributions and the Tax Base
2.3. Types of Pensions and Terms and Conditions of Their Assignment
2.3.1. Old-age Pensions
2.3.2. Invalidity Pensions
2.3.3. Survivor’s Pensions
2.3.4. Pensions to Specific Categories of Population
2.3.5. Social Pensions/Benefits
2.3.6. Pensions Paid at the Account of the State Budget
2.4. The Minimal Pension and Guaranteed Minimum
2.5. Pension Indexing

3. The Present-Day Demographic Setting
3.1. General Population Changes
3.2. Fertility
3.3. Mortality and Life Expectancy
3.4. Population Growth and Migration
3.5. The Base Demographic Forecast

4. Demographic Trends in the Economic Activity of the Population
4.1. Demographic Factors Affecting the Number of Population at the Economically Active Age
4.2. The Profiles and Dynamics of the Economic Activity of the Population
4.3. Projection Scenarios for the Economic Activity of the Population

5. General Employment Issues

6. Payers of Pension Contributions
6.1. The Profile and Number of Pension Contribution Payers
6.2. Projection Scenarios for Insurance Contribution Payers

7. Recipients of Pensions/Benefits
7.1. Profile of Pension Recipients
7.2. Old-Age Pensioners
7.3. Invalidity Pensioners
7.4. Recipients of Pensions for Survivors
7.5. Recipients of Social Pensions/Benefits
7.6. Forecast of Pensioner Numbers

8. Present-Day Macroeconomic Environment
8.1. Historical Background
8.2. Base Macroeconomic Forecast

9. Software Complex
9.1. Mission and Structure of the Software
9.2. Computation Scenario Block
9.3. Demography Block
9.4. Macroeconomics Block
9.5. Receipts Block (Calculation of Contributions)
9.6. Expenditure Block
9.7. Output and Reports

10. Approbation of the Model
10.1. Modelling Scenarios
10.2. Simulation Output
10.3. Computations on the Pension Calculator

Annex 1. Base scenario




Development of the Analytical Model of the Republic of Moldova’s Pension System

7.6. Forecast of Pensioner Numbers

In order to forecast numbers of pensioners as depending on type of a pension we need to know two main parameters, viz. numbers of population in corresponding age and sex groups and age and sex profile of pensioners. Prospective numbers of population are preset within the framework of the demographic forecast presented in paragraph 3.5, and as regards to age and sex profile of pensioners belonging to different type it depends on the hypothesis applied.

Let us assume that pension law of the Republic of Moldova will not undergo any revolutionary changes in the medium-term outlook and therefore the age and sex profile of pensioners will not change too.

Figure 7.5 exhibits the base-case scenario of forecasting pensioner numbers as depending on type of a pension. It based on the assumption that age and sex structure of different-type pensioners (their percentage in total population of a certain age and sex group) would be stable since 2004 and on, throughout the entire forecasting period.

Analysis of the forecasting results tells that proportions between numbers of various category pensioners undergo essential changes depending on the year of forecast. This fact which, at first glance, seems inconsistent with the accepted hypothesis, may be explained in the following way. First, as time goes by, numbers of the Moldova’s population falling into a certain age and sex group is undergoing essential changes (see Fig. 3.2), and, second, as it follows from the hypothesis pensioner profile by type of a pension does not change annually but it strongly depends on pensioner age (see Figs. 7.1-7.3). These trends in common lead to the dependence of proportions between numbers of various type pensioners on the year of forecast.

Fig. 7.5: Forecast of pensioner numbers


Назад К оглавлению Вперед

© Independent Actuarial Information-Analitical Center
Office 342, Building 3a, 1 Khoroshiovsky Proezd, Moscow, 125284 Russia
Tel./fax: (7-495)255-63-08, e-mail: Chief@actuaries.ru