Legislation Publications Pension models About project Statistics
Legislation Publications Pension models About project Statistics

1. Introduction

2. Fundamentals of Moldova’s Pension Legislation
2.1. General Principles
2.2. Insurance Contributions and the Tax Base
2.3. Types of Pensions and Terms and Conditions of Their Assignment
2.3.1. Old-age Pensions
2.3.2. Invalidity Pensions
2.3.3. Survivor’s Pensions
2.3.4. Pensions to Specific Categories of Population
2.3.5. Social Pensions/Benefits
2.3.6. Pensions Paid at the Account of the State Budget
2.4. The Minimal Pension and Guaranteed Minimum
2.5. Pension Indexing

3. The Present-Day Demographic Setting
3.1. General Population Changes
3.2. Fertility
3.3. Mortality and Life Expectancy
3.4. Population Growth and Migration
3.5. The Base Demographic Forecast

4. Demographic Trends in the Economic Activity of the Population
4.1. Demographic Factors Affecting the Number of Population at the Economically Active Age
4.2. The Profiles and Dynamics of the Economic Activity of the Population
4.3. Projection Scenarios for the Economic Activity of the Population

5. General Employment Issues

6. Payers of Pension Contributions
6.1. The Profile and Number of Pension Contribution Payers
6.2. Projection Scenarios for Insurance Contribution Payers

7. Recipients of Pensions/Benefits
7.1. Profile of Pension Recipients
7.2. Old-Age Pensioners
7.3. Invalidity Pensioners
7.4. Recipients of Pensions for Survivors
7.5. Recipients of Social Pensions/Benefits
7.6. Forecast of Pensioner Numbers

8. Present-Day Macroeconomic Environment
8.1. Historical Background
8.2. Base Macroeconomic Forecast

9. Software Complex
9.1. Mission and Structure of the Software
9.2. Computation Scenario Block
9.3. Demography Block
9.4. Macroeconomics Block
9.5. Receipts Block (Calculation of Contributions)
9.6. Expenditure Block
9.7. Output and Reports

10. Approbation of the Model
10.1. Modelling Scenarios
10.2. Simulation Output
10.3. Computations on the Pension Calculator

Annex 1. Base scenario

Development of the Analytical Model of the Republic of Moldova’s Pension System

9. Software Complex

9.2. Mission and Structure of the Software

Software complex developed by the Independent Actuarial Information & Analytical Centre is intended for forecasting financial conditions of the Moldova’s pension system and includes the “Analytical Model of the Pension System of the Republic of Moldova” and “Pension Calculator” that are the two mutually supplementing software products dealing with different challenges which may arise when performing actuarial expertise of a pension insurance system.

“Analytical Model of the Pension System of the Republic of Moldova”is intended for study of the long-term financial performance of the Moldova’s pension system as a whole. This model assesses how the entire pension system would be affected by changes in demography, macroeconomics, and labour, as well as by changes inside the pension system itself, including alteration of the statutory age of retirement, insurance contribution rates, pension formulas, indexing factors, etc. This model is a complex one dealing with great arrays of statistical information and requiring a lot of serious and laborious efforts to form a simulation scenario. The model is trilingual. It may operate in the Romanian, Russian, and English language regimes.

“Pension Calculator”is intended for simulation of an individual pension to a particular recipient whose pension history parameters are preset by the user. “Pension Calculator”makes it possible to assess how ongoing and pending reforms would affect pension provision for persons belonging to different generations, with different levels of well-being, different insurance contributions records, etc. “Pension Calculator”offers a more detailed approach to the analysis of the influence on the amount of a pension exerted by pension formula factors and allows to assess their efficiency and fairness. “Pension Calculator” may operate in the Russian and English language regimes.

The two models have much in common. They are realised on the basis of the popular VBA for Excel interpreter which, together with the module approach to software development, made the models easily understandable for a large number of users from the point of view of both modelling, on the one hand, and analysis and modification of input data and applied algorithms, on the other hand. Ordinary Excel sheets and specially designed visual forms are applied in these models to draw out scenarios for computing a simulation.

In the above models much attention was paid to such aspects as presentation and visualisation of output data. Simulation outcomes may have both tabular and graphic expressions realised in standard Excel sheets or in special visual forms equipped with a system of automatic information selection. Such a design makes output obvious and readily fit for inclusion into reports, presentations, publications, etc.

Users with different level of training are able to work with these software products.

When “Analytical Model of the Pension System of the Republic of Moldova” and “Pension Calculator” were being developed, it was conditioned that statistical information used for calculations, simulation methods, and outcomes of computation should be consistent. Hence they have many similar elements and also reflect design decisions similar in many respects.

Block structures of the two models are outwardly much similar, but there are essential distinctions in their input and output information structures as well as in the computation schemes of the programming units.

Skeleton chart of the “Analytical Model of the Pension System of the Republic of Moldova” as exhibited in Fig. 9.1 consists of the following logical blocks:

  1. block for the formation of computation scenarios where input scenario parameters of simulation are preset;
  2. demography block which includes three sections in charge of 1) projection of population numbers by age and sex; 2) forecast of labour market conditions; 3) projection of pensioner numbers by pension category, age and sex;
  3. macroeconomics block which serves to determine the level of wages in accordance with macroeconomic assumptions;
  4. receipts block where total contributions for each payer group are calculated;
  5. expenditure block which computes amounts of pensions to be paid and total payments to each group of pensioners;
  6. output block which computes various output parameters of the model on the basis of inputs from the preceding blocks;
  7. reports block where output parameters are visualised and simulation reports are compiled.

Fig. 9.1: Principal logical blocks of the “Analytical Model of the Pension System of the Republic of Moldova”

Skeleton chart of the “Pension Calculator” is depicted in Fig. 9.2. One can see that the Demography Block which was a leading unit of the model analysed above is not presented herein. Besides this, the “Pension Calculator” scheme uses the “Contribution Calculation” and “Pension Calculation” blocks instead of the “Receipts” and “Expenditure” blocks, the former blocks having a narrower mission than the latter though compatible overall.

Fig. 9.2: Principal logical blocks of the “Pension Calculator”

Let us examine more thoroughly particular computation units of the two models in order to better understand the line between tasks to be solved with the “Analytical Model of the Pension System of the Republic of Moldova” and those which the “Pension Calculator” is to be applied to, as well as to better understand procedures of preparing input data and clarifying simulation outcomes.

Here attention will be primarily paid to the description of how programming units function within the “Analytical Model of the Pension System of the Republic of Moldova”. When examining blocks having counterparts within the “Pension Calculator” we would be specially noting peculiar design features of the latter.

Назад К оглавлению Вперед

© Independent Actuarial Information-Analitical Center
Office 342, Building 3a, 1 Khoroshiovsky Proezd, Moscow, 125284 Russia
Tel./fax: (7-495)255-63-08, e-mail: Chief@actuaries.ru