Legislation Publications Pension models About project Statistics
Legislation Publications Pension models About project Statistics

1. Introduction

2. Fundamentals of Moldova’s Pension Legislation
2.1. General Principles
2.2. Insurance Contributions and the Tax Base
2.3. Types of Pensions and Terms and Conditions of Their Assignment
2.3.1. Old-age Pensions
2.3.2. Invalidity Pensions
2.3.3. Survivor’s Pensions
2.3.4. Pensions to Specific Categories of Population
2.3.5. Social Pensions/Benefits
2.3.6. Pensions Paid at the Account of the State Budget
2.4. The Minimal Pension and Guaranteed Minimum
2.5. Pension Indexing

3. The Present-Day Demographic Setting
3.1. General Population Changes
3.2. Fertility
3.3. Mortality and Life Expectancy
3.4. Population Growth and Migration
3.5. The Base Demographic Forecast

4. Demographic Trends in the Economic Activity of the Population
4.1. Demographic Factors Affecting the Number of Population at the Economically Active Age
4.2. The Profiles and Dynamics of the Economic Activity of the Population
4.3. Projection Scenarios for the Economic Activity of the Population

5. General Employment Issues

6. Payers of Pension Contributions
6.1. The Profile and Number of Pension Contribution Payers
6.2. Projection Scenarios for Insurance Contribution Payers

7. Recipients of Pensions/Benefits
7.1. Profile of Pension Recipients
7.2. Old-Age Pensioners
7.3. Invalidity Pensioners
7.4. Recipients of Pensions for Survivors
7.5. Recipients of Social Pensions/Benefits
7.6. Forecast of Pensioner Numbers

8. Present-Day Macroeconomic Environment
8.1. Historical Background
8.2. Base Macroeconomic Forecast

9. Software Complex
9.1. Mission and Structure of the Software
9.2. Computation Scenario Block
9.3. Demography Block
9.4. Macroeconomics Block
9.5. Receipts Block (Calculation of Contributions)
9.6. Expenditure Block
9.7. Output and Reports

10. Approbation of the Model
10.1. Modelling Scenarios
10.2. Simulation Output
10.3. Computations on the Pension Calculator

Annex 1. Base scenario

Development of the Analytical Model of the Republic of Moldova’s Pension System

9.3. Demography Block

While working with the “Analytical Model of the Pension System of the Republic of Moldova” the user is able to assess the impact of changing demographic situation on conditions of the pension system. For this purpose the model includes the ‘Demography Block’ which contains three sections: 1) projections of population numbers by sex and age; 2) forecast of labour market conditions; 3) projections of pensioner numbers by pension category, sex, and age (Fig. 9.4).

Fig.  9.4: Computation scheme of the Demography Block

Population numbers in differentiation by sex and age can be projected by means of an outside forecast or projection methods provided for in the model and based on ‘age shifts’ and ‘logit transformations’.

Forecast of labour market conditions and projections of pensioner numbers, differentiated by sex, age, and pension type, are based on great efforts taken to form a simulation scenario. This work resulted in the building of age and sex profiles of main socio-demographic groups.

In forecasting labour market conditions the following groups of the population were sorted out:

  • economically active population;
  • unemployed persons;
  • employees (non-agricultural);
  • employees (agricultural);
  • self-employed persons;
  • farmers.

Numbers of economically active population and unemployed persons are set as percentage of the total number of population while the remainder data – as percentage of all the employed persons. User is enabled to change ratios between these groups and a special visual form named “Employment” is provided for this purpose (see Fig. 9.5).

Fig. 9.5: “Employment” Form

The model considers the following groups of pensioners:

  • old-age pensioners, former non-agricultural workers;
  • old-age pensioners, former agricultural workers;
  • invalidity pensioners;
  • survivors;
  • social pensioners;
  • other pensioners.

It should be note that a mechanism is built into the model which responds to changes in the statutory age of retirement by automatically correcting numbers of main socio-demographic groups, including economically active population, unemployed persons, old-age pensioners, invalidity pensioners, etc.

As regards to the “Pension Calculator”, it is applied to simulate changing conditions of an individual person rather than of socio-demographic cohorts. It is designed for analysing changes in demographic and labour market conditions and for this reason it has not got a ‘demography block’.

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